Sudden Explosion: 27.7 Trillion Yuan
Recently, several wealth management products have adjusted their scale limits. Since February, multiple bank wealth management companies, including China Merchants Wealth Management, Bank of Communications Wealth Management, Everbright Wealth Management, and Agricultural Bank Wealth Management, have adjusted the scale limits of many of their products. Some have increased from 3 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan, and some have even been adjusted to 10 billion yuan or more.
On March 15, 2024, the scale limit of a certain wealth management plan of China Merchants Wealth Management was increased from the original 2 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan, with the adjustment date set for March 19, 2024.
On March 14, 2024, Bank of Communications Wealth Management also announced that to meet customer investment needs, the scale limit of a certain wealth management plan product was increased from 1 billion yuan to 2 billion yuan.
Why are bank wealth management products popular? The overall bank wealth management products are mainly bond-based, which are related to bond funds and money market funds in the market, which are relatively conservative wealth management plans.
Bank wealth management products have a significant correlation with bank interest rates. When interest rates are high, the enthusiasm for bank wealth management is high. However, when interest rates remain low for a long time, the scale of bank wealth management decreases.
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According to research and calculation by CITIC Securities, as of the end of February 2024, the scale of existing wealth management products is approximately 27.7 trillion yuan.
Recently, bank wealth management products have been popular. Statistics show that since March, in just a few trading days, four popular bond funds have been established, with the largest scale exceeding 7 billion yuan. In the international rule, bond funds often play the role of ballast stone in asset allocation, and their stable risk-return characteristics are more in line with the demands of most institutions and individual investors. Therefore, when there are no significant investment opportunities in the equity market, bond varieties often become the first choice for investors.
Recently, bank wealth management has become popular again. The overall expectation is that the stock market is too sluggish, the US dollar is too strong, suppressing the stock market bull market expectations, as well as the complex macro environment, and the market's aversion to risk has driven the rebound of bank wealth management products.From a macro perspective, the scale of wealth management products has not seen much growth over the years. The main reasons are expected to be the significant expansion of the stock market in recent years, with heavy pressure from new listings and capital outflows. Now, with the strengthening of on-site inspections for IPOs and the policy direction of the stock market moving towards strengthening the market and improving the quality of listed companies, it is predicted that the pace of IPOs may significantly slow down, driving a large amount of capital to start flowing back to the bond market.
Despite the size of the stock market, there are actually not many investment opportunities. According to international market patterns, bond funds are always the largest in scale among various types of funds because there are not many investable targets in the market. Don't be fooled by the continuous rise of the U.S. stock market or the sustained increases in Japan and India; these increases are more driven by ETFs, creating an index bull market. The distribution of capital assets in various countries is generally similar, with bond funds and bond markets being the largest in scale.
For the stock market, the overall impact of capital flows to bank wealth management is limited; it is just a regular pattern of market movement. The rise of the stock market in the future will still depend on the value growth of listed companies themselves. It is unlikely that a halt in IPOs will lead to a significant market surge, as the market has become more sophisticated, and the market has grown larger. The past speculation has gradually faded, at least it is decreasing.
It is common knowledge that fewer and smaller listed companies are more prone to speculation, while once listed companies reach a certain scale, the appeal of such speculation significantly decreases. Only high-growth companies can attract more capital for investment and speculation.
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