Throughout history, the themes of cataclysmic floods and waves reshaping the world have resonated strongly in human narratives, both oral and written. This imagery evokes the notion of renewal and transformation following devastation, underlying the unstoppable and uncontrollable nature of such forces. As we navigate the contemporary landscape, humanity finds itself once again in the midst of a technological deluge—a wave ushered in by the twin pillars of artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology. These innovations promise a new dawn filled with extraordinary potential for growth and abundance; however, they also usher in risks that could culminate in chaotic and catastrophic scenarios. When the costs associated with harnessing such technologies drop low enough, they may empower rogue entities to wreak unprecedented havoc at an alarming scale.

The duality of technology’s effects—beneficial and harmful—has been discussed extensively in “The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Future of Impact,” co-authored by Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Google DeepMind, and Michael Bhaskar, a writer and digital publisher. This work articulates the impressive advantages that AI offers alongside the latent threats and challenges it presents. AI’s positive influence continues to materialize, yet its potential destructiveness lingers ominously on the horizon, with some adverse realities striking sooner than anticipated. The authors describe their book not merely as a discussion on technology failures, but as a critical investigation into how such failures can arise when technology diverges from its intended purpose. For instance, within the realms of AI and synthetic biology, it may soon be possible for individuals to engineer new pathogens that surpass natural ones in their virulence and transmission capabilities. Consequently, any single person with malicious intent might possess the power to endanger countless lives.

The Technological Waves of AI and Synthetic Biology

The concept of artificial intelligence is not as recent as many might think. The term itself was coined in 1956 during a summer workshop at Dartmouth College, organized by a group of American computer scientists. This workshop called for discussions centered on how computer programming could replicate human-like reasoning, perception, and understanding. At that time, AI seemed more like a distant aspiration than a viable reality. For decades, even with significant efforts, advancements in AI and related fields like machine vision did not match the ambitious expectations set forth by early pioneers. It wasn’t until the emergence of game-changing models like AlphaGo and ChatGPT that the development of AI experienced a qualitative leap, heralding an accelerated trajectory of growth. The skepticism surrounding AI’s future has rapidly dwindled; the pressing question now revolves around how to adapt to its rapid evolution. Today, AI technology has pervaded various fields, with applications such as AI-assisted writing and editing now commonplace across writing software.

Another centerpiece technology in this new wave is synthetic biology. On our planet, life has evolved slowly and chaotically. For much of history, the principle of survival of the fittest dictated the course of biological evolution; however, this paradigm is shifting. The mysteries of biology are being unraveled, transforming into a robust tool. The narratives of life are being rewritten at an accelerated pace. Through advancements in DNA sequencing and decoding technologies, scientists now have the ability to create entirely new DNA sequences, enabling us to intervene purposefully in the evolutionary trajectory that has unfolded over millions of years.

As AI and synthetic biology converge, they form an unprecedented torrent. In a certain sense, AI and synthetic biology share interchangeable ideas, given that all forms of intelligence derive fundamentally from life itself. Whether termed "synthetic intelligence" or "artificial life," they embody a unified aspiration to reconstruct and redesign fundamental concepts that define what it means to be human.

Four Distinct Features of the AI Technological Wave

Each significant technological wave unveils unique characteristics. For example, railroads revolutionized space and time, drastically reducing transportation costs and engendering profound benefits for economic and social development. However, the substantial investments required limited access to this technology primarily to states or large corporations, relegating the general populace to passive enjoyment of its benefits. The effects of railroads were symmetrical for the average person. The AI wave, in contrast, bears distinctive features previously unobserved in earlier technologies, which the authors delineate in their text.

The first feature is the stark asymmetry of technology. Asymmetry implies that the forces involved need not hold equal power or scale. The advent of technology reveals previously unimaginable vulnerabilities in seemingly powerful positions. For instance, the introduction of cannons allowed a small group to dismantle fortified castles and entire armies, while steam power empowered individual factories to match the productivity of entire towns. This shift signifies a dramatic transfer of power and capability from traditional states and corporations to any individual or organization capable and willing to deploy and utilize these technologies creatively. One experimental pathogen may catalyze a global pandemic or a single AI program might produce a wealth of text rivaling the entirety of human literature, all with minimal investment and often executed by one person.

Secondly, the concept of hyper-evolution characterizes this wave of technology. Historically, certain technologies produced significant impacts while progressing slowly. Take the automobile, for example—it was invented over a century ago, yet its evolution has been relatively gradual, with modern vehicles remaining fundamentally similar to those of a century ago, albeit with incremental improvements in comfort. This slow development allowed ample time for safety standards to be implemented and negative impacts managed. In contrast, AI exhibits hyper-evolutionary traits. Recent years have shown a breathtaking pace of expansion, consistently outpacing our comprehension of the technology, fostering an unsettling predicament where many cannot keep stride with AI's evolution, let alone devise adequate frameworks to mitigate any negative consequences stemming from its advances.

The third feature to highlight is the universal applicability of this technology. Universal technologies, like electricity and the internet, lend themselves to a multitude of applications across various domains. AI constitutes a versatile technology applicable in economics, health, the military, and numerous other fields. This universality compounds the challenge of controlling its development, as filtering safety protocols and governance measures becomes increasingly complex as time progresses.

Lastly, the autonomy of technology demonstrates a fundamental transformation compared to previous relationships between humans and machines. Historically, human oversight and control were integral to all technology operations. However, AI fundamentally alters this relationship due to its unique autonomy, wherein sustained human intervention becomes less indispensable. The decision-making processes of AI systems are often opaque to their human creators, leading to scenarios where we struggle even to understand the rationale behind certain actions. Remarkably, each incremental advancement of AI furthers its independence, continuously challenging humans' boundaries of comprehension and predictability.

While the authors do not classify rapid dissemination as a third feature, they do discuss its implications. It is challenging for most individuals to grasp the complex technologies underpinning AI models, yet the accessibility of these models is overwhelming—especially when accessed through smartphones and ubiquitous devices. This dynamic underscores the potent spreading power of AI technology, as widespread familiarity can lead to unforeseen and intricate causal chains when individuals begin to modify and adapt these technologies to suit their preferences.

Driving Forces Behind the AI Technological Wave

Continued technological advancement is propelled by underlying factors intimately tied to human nature. Whenever individuals perceive sufficient motivation to research and implement new technologies, they inevitably emerge. According to the authors, three principal factors drive the AI surge: global power competition, existing research ecosystems, and significant economic rewards.

From the perspective of international competition, technology serves as the pivotal tool to elevate a nation’s standing in the global hierarchy, a widely recognized tenet for almost every country. Technological supremacy in the context of international order and competition is crucial. Presently, technology has become one of the most valuable strategic assets for nations, and the competition of great powers in the 21st century revolves around achieving technological advantages. The ability to harness the current wave of AI technological developments positions nations advantageously in the ever-evolving arena of global governance and influence.

Considering existing research ecosystems, one observes that elements such as human curiosity, the pursuit of truth, an open spirit, and evidence-based peer review embody the core values of scientific inquiry. The ardent quest for truths serves as a potent driver. Take the Manhattan Project as an instance; scientists like J. Robert Oppenheimer and John von Neumann illustrated an unyielding commitment to explore the unforeseen consequences of their creations—even as they acknowledged the potentially catastrophic ramifications of their work.

Economic interests represent an enduring and compelling motivator behind the growth of AI technology. While serendipity has played a pivotal role in technological evolution, research is predominantly guided by commercial incentives. Human desires and the diverse spectrum of needs create a plethora of opportunities driving AI advancements, ensuring the continued evolution and direction of AI technology in the foreseeable future.

The Threats Posed by the AI Wave

Technological advancements should be intended to amplify human strengths rather than exploit weaknesses. AI expert Fei-Fei Li from Stanford University has expressed profound concerns regarding the unchecked development of AI in her memoir, citing the complexities arising from the opacity of AI design, whether the outcomes are good or bad, expected or unexpected. These intricacies lead to worrying consequences, including what has been termed “adversarial attacks,” where the inputs are specifically crafted to deceive algorithms for counterintuitive or destructive outcomes.

AI's negative impacts can be examined from three angles. Firstly, while utilizing AI's positive functions, secondary effects emerge, requiring users to exercise self-control to mitigate risks. Secondly, AI's replacement of human intelligence creates job displacements affecting particular groups and disrupting established occupational structures. Finally, malicious applications of AI necessitate exploring pathways toward constructive technology and effectively controlling deviations from intended benefits.

The first negative effect becomes apparent when assessing academic research. The extensive applications of AI in academia resemble previous search engines that dramatically increase research efficiency. However, this raises boundary issues—what level of AI assistance is appropriate? Relying entirely on AI for tasks like thesis writing edges into academic misconduct. For instance, the University of Cambridge has issued guidelines restricting AI use to support academic research without substituting independent thinking or directly incorporating AI-generated content into formal writing. Similar protocols have been instituted by many higher education institutions worldwide.

AI may also disrupt existing job structures. Recent AI models are performing exceptionally well in tasks such as writing, content generation, video production, and translation, sometimes even surpassing human capabilities. As the technology advances further, companies may readily deploy AI systems for these roles, potentially leading to structural unemployment. In terms of societal development, not every technology that replaces human jobs yields favorable results. Addressing the motivations driving AI advancement becomes crucial; as indicated by Fei-Fei Li, societal benefits must remain at the core of these developments.

Moreover, the malignant use of AI—particularly in militaristic contexts—poses grave dangers. Employing AI in military applications could dramatically elevate the destructive potential of terrorist organizations. Even under conventional state actors, AI implementation can change the dynamics of conflict and introduce new security threats worldwide.

Curbing the Negative Effects of the AI Wave

Any technology bears the potential for failure, often manifesting in a manner contradictory to its original objectives. Understanding technology necessitates a comprehensive assessment of unexpected outcomes. Containing technological development entails managing both the pace and negative impacts, allowing society ample time and space to comprehend and adjust. “Containment” becomes a vital competency, encompassing the ability to control, restrict, and, when necessary, pause technology at any stage of its development. For instance, shortly after the release of GPT-4, thousands of AI scientists signed an open letter urging for the halting of advanced AI model research due to perceived out-of-control growth. Subsequently, the Italian government lifted certain restrictions on AI applications such as ChatGPT.

The authors summarize technological containment into three levels: firstly, procedural measures conducted within laboratories or research environments—primarily concerning researchers and developers. Secondly, containment efforts extend to the values and culture surrounding technological creation and dissemination that mark boundaries and governance levels while alerting to potential hazards. Finally, government and international regulatory frameworks come into play, constituting essential mechanisms for monitoring technology.

Human history reveals a common reflex—placing the onus of responsibility for adverse impacts on governance. This expectation stems from the belief that effective regulation can adequately address these challenges. However, the authors contend that relying solely on regulation within AI's domain is inadequate for several reasons: regulatory frameworks typically juggle competing interests and complexities, and even experts struggle to keep pace with technological changes, leaving regulatory bodies with little leverage. Furthermore, while technological advancements advance at a rapid clip, the legislative processes for formal regulations often lag significantly behind the pace of change—creating a mismatch between development and oversight. In this context, containing the negative impacts of AI requires comprehensive collaboration across various stakeholders.

Ten Key Steps Toward Containment

Maintaining an optimistic view toward scientific power is warranted, but to exploit this potential safely, equitably, and sustainably, multifaceted systems securing technological safety must be established. The authors outline ten strategic steps to address the negative consequences of AI technologies, which include: ensuring technological safety, implementing reviews, granting time for adaptation, empowering developers, promoting a “profit + mission” mentality, enhancing government regulation, forming international alliances, fostering cultural awareness, mobilizing public engagement, and ensuring overall coordination.

Technological safety encompasses specific measures designed to minimize the inherent risks of AI and ensure effective control over its direction. Reviews emphasize the need for transparency and accountability within technology—defining clear avenues for reviewing processes throughout the development and application stages. Time for adaptation suggests leveraging critical control nodes in technology to decelerate advancements, granting regulatory bodies the necessary leeway for response. Developers should bear a greater responsibility for constructing technology that promotes enhancements, demonstrating practical measures to create and sustain beneficial changes. The notion of “profit + mission” urges businesses in AI development to not only chase profits but also maintain social accountability and reflect on their impact on society at large. Governments should engage actively in technological progress and standards formulation, positioning themselves as proficient regulators rather than passive observers. International collaboration can play an essential role in constructing alliances to mitigate AI's destructive influences. Culturally, AI responsibilities should nurture a cautious atmosphere that recognizes potential risks. Finally, the involvement of the public across various levels is crucial for ensuring shared accountability, creating pressing needs for transformation that manifest through collective demand.

Undoubtedly, the ten proposed measures epitomize one perspective—the practical implementation of these measures will require careful consideration of which approaches are feasible and effective. Nevertheless, the surging wave of AI technology reshapes the course of human societal evolution, simultaneously presenting formidable challenges. Effectiveness in confronting these challenges will determine whether this new technological surge diverges onto a perilous path.

While the title of this book emphasizes the impending arrival of the wave, the truth is that the wave is already here! We find ourselves enveloped in this current, which evokes an array of psychological reactions and exhilaration among many. AI offers significant conveniences, making it easy for us to overlook its flaws. Presently, technology resembles an enticing "carrot" for humanity; we must remain vigilant against its potential transformation into a “staff” wielding destructive power. As we innovate and implement technological breakthroughs, we must simultaneously recognize their destructive capacities, ensuring that technology serves humanity and the planetary home we inhabit.